Where doubles start

From here on, we're on the course. Your ranking says where your strokes go. The next three lessons are about why: which way you miss, how far your clubs really carry, and where your doubles start. Today is doubles, because that is where the strokes leave fastest.

A 15 handicap makes almost 5 doubles or worse a round. A 10 makes almost 3 (Shot Scope data via Golf Monthly). That gap is most of the distance between the two of them, and it has nothing to do with the swing that made the bad shot. It is about the shot right after it.

Here is what our own data says. We looked at 453 rounds from 127 golfers in the app. When a hole had a penalty shot on it, it turned into a double or worse 72% of the time. Two or more short game shots, more than half the time. A three putt, almost half. But when a golfer got on or near the green with two shots left for par, only 4% of those holes went double or worse. Otherwise, it was 37% (PRG app data).

So a bad shot does not make a double. A bad shot followed by a hero shot makes a double.

Arccos data reported by Golf Digest says the same thing a different way: 86% of doubles or worse come from five mistakes, and a failed hero recovery is one of them (Golf Digest, July 2025).

Credit where it is due

Scott Fawcett's DECADE system teaches five scoring rules it calls the Tiger 5. Two of them are no doubles and no three putts. He is right about both, and he is right that speed control on the greens is where a lot of doubles die (Golf Digest, 2024). I played college golf on DECADE. It was built on Tour data. This starts from your last 3 scorecards.

The Disaster Budget

Count the doubles or worse on your last three scorecards. Divide by three. That is your budget. It is not a target. It is what you have been doing. Your job next round is to beat it by one.

Write the number on your card before you tee off. Then, when a shot finds trouble, you have spent one, and the next shot has exactly one job: get back in play. Three rules that make that work:

1. The next shot aims at the fairway, or the fat part of the green. Never at the flag.
2. Never short side yourself. If you can't reach the green, leave the ball where the chip is easy.
3. Outside 30 feet, two putts is a win. Walk off with bogey and the budget is intact.

The boring version of a hole is the one that keeps the double off your card.

The Disaster Card

The back of the card is one row for every double, with five columns: a tee shot into a penalty or the trees, a hero shot from trouble, a short sided miss, a chip that missed the green, a three putt. Tick the one that started it. After three rounds, the column with the most ticks is where your doubles start, and that is the thing to practice.

Your one action this week

Do the count tonight from your last three scorecards. That works in winter. The ticks wait for your next round.

In the app, every logged round shows strokes gained hole by hole, so you can see which holes and which shots made the doubles without the card.

Tomorrow: two decisions on every approach shot, and the one that fixes most of the short misses.